Real News, Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran

Since Mother Nature has kept me off the slopes and prevented me from uploading cool ski photos and stories, I might as well write on something of substance. I read early this morning in the UK Sunday Times that Israel is planning a nuclear strike on Iran. This sort of preemptive action scares me, as action against Iraq scared me prior to the attacks. Often times, as was the case in Iraq, the desire to act preemptively was based more on emotion than on logic and reason. The statement below tells me that is the case with regards to Iran as well.
From the Times Online:

"Sources close to the Pentagon said the United States was highly unlikely to give approval for tactical nuclear weapons to be used. One source said Israel would have to seek approval “after the event”, as it did when it crippled Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirak with airstrikes in 1981.
Scientists have calculated that although contamination from the bunker-busters could be limited, tons of radioactive uranium compounds would be released.
The Israelis believe that Iran’s retaliation would be constrained by fear of a second strike if it were to launch its Shehab-3 ballistic missiles at Israel."

The last sentence of that paragraph is what scares me the most. It tells me that Isreal is applying two very different lines of reasoning. The first is that those in charge in Iran are crazy and stupid enough to attack Israel with Nuclear weapons and therefore need to be preempted. The second is that those in charge in Iran are sane and intelligent enough to be constrained by fear. Whichever way you feel about the Iranian leadership, it can't be had both ways.

I tried to preach common sense before the Iraq war, and have stopped doing it since. I don't want to be one of those people always saying, "I told you so". The fact is, we are there, and we have a difficult road ahead. I wouldn't want to be the one making the decisions we have to make now. But for the sake of applying some common sense to Iran, let history give us this lesson. Saddam Hussein was evil. He was brutal. He was also NOT a radical Muslim, he was the opposite. He was not willing to die for Allah. He was an Egomaniac (Statues of himself everywhere). He lived in a Palace, had cars, possessions, servants. That kind of person does not risk what he has. Attacking the US would have jeopardized that, he knew it, therefore he was never a threat to the US.

The situation in Iran is different, but I see the same themes being played out before anyone dives into the deep analsis that needs to be done before we think about a preemptive attack. Much attention is paid to Ahmadinejad's anti zionist remarks, which, while troubling, are still only words and are not enough to constitute a threat. Neo-Conservatives would have you believe that Ahmadinejad is evil and that he is intent on destroying Israel and the U.S., and therefore, it is not even worth discussing other options. I'm not going to sympathize with the guy, but he has a PhD and is an intelligent man with an intelligence agency and advisors just like us. He surely knows the consequences to himself and his people if he strikes. He is also a politician with voters who see Israel and the US as a threat to Islam. Maybe it's just rhetoric, the way, say, right-wing Christian politicians talk about gays and hell in the same sentence.

With Iraq fresh in our minds, let us not forget the intelligence errors that started the Iraq war, and let's not make the same mistakes this time around. We are arguably less safe with the enemies this war has created. American citizens and politicians need to think about whether allowing Israel to carry out a preemptive nuclear attack on Iran will make us more or less safe.